November 10, 2020

What should Latin America expect from Biden’s administration?

topic:	Election
located:	Cuba, Venezuela, Brazil, USA, Mexico
editor:	Ellen Nemitz

The United States elections’ counting was accompanied by millions of people worldwide. The interest in the Biden-Trump's race to the White House was also high in  the Latin Americas. And, for those concerned about human rights and the environment, Biden's victory seems to renew hopes.

The neighbor Mexico is potentially the most affected. Door to a mass illegal immigration, the country was one of the main targets of Trump, who wished to build a concrete wall dividing the border. In the analysis of Genaro Lozano to the Washington Post, Mexico "has been able to deal with a very long history of adversities in the bilateral relationship, but also of opportunities. If Biden wins, several adjustments will be necessary and the turbulence in the relationship will be there, as always”, he said before results, but "would return a bit of the old normality to the bilateral relationship”.

Cuba is another central point of attention, considering the historic relation with the United States, marked by economic sanctions and hostilities. Under Barack Obama’s administration, bilateral relations started to be redesigned, bringing mutual benefits, but Trump’s four years of government meant setbacks for the islanders. Going from a “boom" of tourists in 2016 to a severe shortage of basic needs in 2020, Cuba had reasons to celebrate Biden’s victory, which may represent the return of an open relation between the two nations, although some experts may say this should happen more slowly and not to the same point once experienced.

Venezuela, which nowadays faces a serious political and humanitarian crisis, is also a concern. Specialists do not agree about possible effects, according to a compilation of opinions published by the Deutsche Welle. "Joe Biden could be much more inclined to the possibility of negotiation processes as a culture of his Democratic party”, assessed the political scientist Nicmer Evans. On the other side, the analyst Diego Arria concerns about policies changes and says: "I think that opening doors to Cuba is closing doors of freedom to Venezuela, which is a country that is a victim of the pressure and influence that the Castro regime has been exerting for many years”. Another guess comes from Ricardo Sucre Heredia, who expects Biden to globally analyze the situation before choosing a guideline.

For Brazil, currently administrated by a far-right president aligned to the Trumpism, Biden’s victory divided opinions. Jair Bolsonaro will probably have to reset strategies in the new scenario. Comercial relation may rely on a different environmental policy, for example, considering that the United States will probably resume participation in Paris Agreement and the president elected declared preoccupation with the Amazon devastation. "Environmental policy will be Biden's priority in foreign policy and will also be linked to trade policy”, said Christopher Garman, director for the Americas for risk consultancy Eurasia, to El Pais. However, if Bolsonaro takes the right direction, this should mean a new way towards a friendly relation. “On Biden's side, there will be no antagonism or hostility towards Brazil. He values ​​alliances and knows Latin America very well”, assessed the ex-ambassador of Brazil in United States, Rubens Ricupero, also to El Pais.

Image by Nikki Vargas 

Call to Action

Dear tech companies: protect our democracies and mental health!

Support now