topic: | Freedom of Expression |
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located: | Kazakhstan, Russia |
editor: | Andrew Getto |
After decades of one-man authoritarian rule, Kazakhstan is mired in mass street protests. Amid violent street action, the country’s president seems to be setting up a silent coup. Can the protesters dismantle the regime of Nursultan Nazarbayev, or will the authorities disorganise and crush the dissent?
Stretching thousands of miles between Russia and China, Kazakhstan is the economic powerhouse of Central Asia. Economically it’s bigger than the other four regional post-Soviet nations combined. However, this relative prosperity has been based on economic exploitation of western, oil-rich regions. Much like in Russia, oil profits accumulate in the capital, and, in particular, in the pockets of elites.
The region’s resentment exploded on 2 January when the price for oil-well gas, the go-to car fuel, doubled overnight. Isolated demonstrations in the west quickly turned into a nation-wide street protest. In just one day, the protesters went from asking for a cut in fuel prices to demanding the disarmament of police and calling for “the old man” to go.
“The old man” is the 81-year-old Nursultan Nazarbayev, who has ruled the country since the last years of the Soviet Union and has won five presidential elections in a row with a result of over 90 percent. During his rule, Kazakhstan has shown economic growth, but the civil society and any forms of opposition have been steamrolled.
In 2019, Nazarbayev officially stepped down as a president, reportedly due to illness. He promoted ally Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to the presidential position, but nevertheless Nazarbayev has remained the de-facto leader and the head of the Security Council. On 5 January, after two years in the shadow of Nazarbayev, Tokayev took the opportunity to strip him of his last formal position of power.
In his first major speech since the protests broke out, Tokayev dismissed the demonstrators as pawns of some behind-the-scenes masters, and vowed to react with brute force. This echoes the rhetoric of Nazarbayev, whose police officers shot and killed dozens of people during the 2011 protests of oil workers in Zhanaozen.
Tokayev still has a historic opportunity to bring about real change for Kazakh people, who are tired of the corrupt rule of an elderly strongman. Instead of trying to crush the protests, Tokayev should use the momentum to turn Kazakhstan into a more free country, which it deserves to be.
If it’s too much to ask from a career regime politician, the president should at least refrain from using lethal force. Right now, with burning police cars and shootouts on the streets, the country is a full tank of highly explosive fuel: Tokayev should do everything to avoid causing a spark and remember that he doesn’t have to act like his predecessor.
Photo by Alex McCarthy