Indian Farmers are paying the price for Iran and Israel’s 12-day conflict

The western-central Indian state of Maharashtra is currently experiencing a shortage of vital fertilisers, particularly Diammonium Phosphate (DAP), as the Kharif (monsoon) sowing season begins. Long lines outside fertiliser stores, empty shelves, and black-market premiums have become the new normal for many rural households who rely on agriculture.

An unexpected trigger

When Israel launched surprise attacks on key military and nuclear facilities in Iran on 13 June 2025, no one expected the fallout to land in rural Maharashtra.

The ensuing 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran sent shockwaves through global trade routes. While the truce brokered by the United States brought some relief, the damage to chemical supply chains had been done. Cargo delays at major Middle Eastern ports slowed shipments of crucial raw materials like rock phosphate and phosphoric acid, essential for making Diammonium Phosphate (DAP), the fertiliser most Indian farmers rely on during the Kharif sowing season.

Combined with China’s ban on DAP exports and a weakening rupee, this disruption has hit India’s fertiliser supply chain hard. In the western state of Maharashtra, where millions depend on timely sowing, long queues outside fertiliser shops, empty shelves, and black-market premiums are becoming routine. As farmers scramble to secure DAP or its alternatives, the crisis highlights how vulnerable India’s agriculture is to global shocks beyond its control.

Due to its reliance on imported fertiliser, India is susceptible to interruptions in the global supply chain. In June 2025, China stopped exporting DAP fertiliser to focus on domestic needs and reroute phosphates for use in manufacturing batteries for electric vehicles, which was a blow to one of India’s major DAP supply chains.

Another factor was the 12-day June conflict between Israel and Iran, which concluded on June 24 with a truce mediated by the United States. The conflict further disrupted global chemical supply lines, making it harder to source raw materials for fertiliser production. Shipments of rock phosphate, phosphoric acid, and intermediate chemicals required for the manufacturing of DAP were impacted by cargo delays in key Middle Eastern ports. 

June was not the first time a geopolitical conflict disrupted India’s fertiliser and, as a result, food production. In November 2024, multiple geopolitical tensions, including the Red Sea crisis, the Israel-Gaza conflict, and export restrictions from key suppliers like China and Morocco, saw Indian farmers struggling similarly.

Domestic production also depends upon the import of raw materials. The Red Sea crisis diverted vessels, including Phosphatic Acid vessels, via the Cape of Good Hope, resulting in longer voyage times and associated supply chain disruptions.

Simultaneously, the Indian rupee depreciated to an all-time low Indian rupee depreciated to an all-time low of ₹86.10 against the U.S. dollar, making imports more expensive. With supply constraints and rising costs, fertiliser production slowed significantly, directly affecting farmers as the sowing season began.

A crisis among farmers

At a fertiliser distribution centre in Yavatmal district, 38-year-old farmer Dheeraj Pandey, who grows Bananas and other fruits, expressed his concern. “There is no DAP in stock again,” he said. “We are already behind on sowing. Without fertiliser, we may lose the season.”

Due to erratic monsoons and poor irrigation, the Marathwada and Vidarbha regions in Maharashtra state of India are particularly dependent on timely access to inputs like fertilisers. Like Dheeraj, these smallholder farmers must now delay planting or resort to buying fertiliser at inflated prices in the black market. Some dealers reportedly charge as much as 1600 Rupees (USD 18.5) per 50kg bag, compared to the subsidised rate of 1350 Rupees (USD 15.6).  

The state is one of India’s key agricultural regions, producing crops like cotton, pulses, maize, and fruits.

A History of Dependency

India imports finished DAP fertiliser mainly from China, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Russia, and Jordan. DAP manufacturing in India requires raw materials such as rock phosphate and sulphur. The country imports rock phosphate from Jordan, Morocco, Togo, Egypt, and Algeria and sulphur from the UAE, Qatar, and Oman. India also imports intermediate chemicals such as phosphoric acid from Jordan, Morocco, Senegal, and Tunisia and ammonia from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, and Indonesia.

According to The Indian Express, India’s opening DAP stock for the 2025 Kharif season was 12.4 lakh (hundred thousand) tonnes, down from 21.6 lakh tonnes in 2024 and 33.2 lakh tonnes in 2023.

This declining buffer stock has left the system more vulnerable to geopolitical tensions.

India is 90 per cent dependent on imports of rock phosphate, a key raw material for manufacturing DAP and NPK fertilisers.

Farmers say they are now spending almost twice as much on fertiliser because the options available don’t work as well as DAP. DAP has a lot of phosphorus, essential for crops like cotton to grow strong roots. However, since DAP is hard to find, farmers use other fertilisers with less phosphorus. This means they have to buy more bags to get the same results.

“We’re being forced to spend more on extra fertiliser,” Manish Jadhav, a cotton farmer from Maharashtra, told FairPlanet. “And this is happening when all our other costs are also going up.”

“We are forced to import raw materials for the production of fertilisers because they are not available in India,” said Uday Tijare, Maharashtra state marketing manager of IFFCO (Indian Farmers FertiliserCooperative Limited), to FairPlanet.

“The rates depend on the international market, which fluctuates as per the geopolitical situations. The rate of raw material, such as phosphoric acid, has increased a lot recently, which impacts the production costs,” Tijare added.

A plan to educate and diversify supply

In conversation with FairPlanet, Uday Deolankar, former advisor to the Maharashtra Agriculture Prices Commission, said, “Farmers don’t always have access to information about the use of fertilisers and they buy the affordable and familiar ones […] That’s why awareness is so important.”

He added that agricultural universities in Maharashtra, research centres like the National Agricultural Research Project, and departments across the state are now working to educate farmers through literature and outreach. “We need to help farmers make informed choices, especially in times of crisis.”

Experts say that to solve these persistent shortfalls, India needs structural reforms. These include investing in farmer training, encouraging local alternatives, decentralising fertiliser manufacturing, and expediting soil health testing.

“Promoting domestic production of fertilisers would help reduce the fiscal burden associated with the growing use of heavily subsidised soil nutrients,” said Suhash Buddhe, adviser to the Soluble Fertiliser Industry Association (SFIA), in a statement to the Financial Express.

Buddhe, who also mentors the IIM Nagpur incubation cell, emphasised the need for government intervention to boost local manufacturing of soil nutrients. “This would not only enhance crop yields and improve soil health but also increase nutrient use efficiency compared to traditional fertilisers,” he noted.

Buddhe criticised outdated regulatory frameworks, stating, “A single manufacturing unit is monitored by as many as 32 Fertiliser Control Order (FCO) inspectors, leading to excessive scrutiny and harassment under the guise of compliance.”  He called for reforms like “One Nation, One Licence” and capping inspector numbers to empower Indian entrepreneurs. 

Damle concludes, "The crisis wouldn't have hit us this hard if farmers knew better options and soil requirements.”

Dheeraj Pandey, a farmer in Yavatmal, is getting ready to plant his sweetcorn crop without DAP. "We cannot wait indefinitely. We must accept the risk, even if the payoff is poor," he told FairPlanet.

As global events continue to impact currency values and supply networks, India's agricultural economy is becoming increasingly vulnerable, which is why farmers and experts are highlighting the urgent need for structural reforms to boost domestic production and reduce import dependence.

Image by Rihan Das.