Kashmir: A Valley Emptied, a Border Reignited

Tourists snapped photos on ponies, families laid out picnics under the sun, and local vendors served snacks with the ease of routine.

Then came the gunfire.

In broad daylight, suspected militants opened fire on a crowd of mostly tourists, killing at least 26 people and wounding dozens more in one of the deadliest civilian attacks Kashmir has seen in over a decade.

The massacre sent shockwaves through the valley - not only for its scale but for what it symbolised: the shattering of a fragile peace, a devastating blow to the tourism economy, and the return of fear to a region struggling to move forward.

Immediate Aftermath

Riyaz Ahmad, a 52-year-old man who runs a hotel in Pahalgam, said they thought things were finally changing for the better and were happy.

“We were thinking about the blockbuster and packed summer season this year, as tourist arrivals broke all the previous records, but our happiness soon became our nightmare.”

He said the Pahalgam incident has left deep emotional scars across Kashmir, particularly among those whose livelihoods depend on tourism.

“The earnings from this season would have helped us through the winter, but now, we do not know if we will even make it to next month,” he said, his voice cracking.

He described the aftermath as swift and brutal. 

Thousands of tourists fled the valley within 24 hours of the attack, and hotel bookings were cancelled en masse. Local shopkeepers, pony owners, and guides, all of whom rely entirely on seasonal tourism, have been left with nothing but a nightmare of their memories.

“The streets are empty, and everything in and around Pahalgam seems deserted,” said Sameer, a local vendor who has a restaurant there, adding that the ghost of the COVID-19 lockdown has returned.

Economic Fallout

Before the attack, local government estimates in Jammu and Kashmir showed the year 2024 as a landmark year for tourism. More than 3.5 million tourists had visited the valley by mid-year.

Airlines had been adding flights, with data suggesting more than 90 flights were operational in a single day, along with hotels expanding capacity, while the local economy was seeing a rare upward increase.

The fallout from the attack is reminiscent of COVID-19, when the whole country was closed to tourists; it brought a significant setback to Kashmir’s economy, as reports suggest a larger part of Kashmir is dependent on tourism.

Hotel rooms lie empty. The once-crowded shikaras-traditional wooden boats used for leisure rides on Kashmir’s lakes-now sit idle at the shore, awaiting passengers who no longer come. Their owners describe the current situation as the worst they’ve ever seen.

“There was a time when we did not even get a moment to rest as tourists would line up for rides from morning till sunset. Now, we stare at the lake, hoping someone will come. This silence is not peace; it is pain,” Abdul Rasheed, a Shikara owner with 15 years of experience on Dal Lake, told FairPlanet.

Mohammad Yaseen, another 45-year-old Shikara Owner at Srinagar’s famous Dal Lake, told FairPlanet their days used to begin with laughter and end with tips from happy tourists.

“Now, all we hear is the sound of water and our worries. When the lake is empty, it feels like our lives are too,” he said, describing his ordeal as sitting in a houseboat and looking at the waters of Dal in pain.

Article 370 of the Indian Constitution granted special autonomous status to the region of Jammu and Kashmir, allowing it to make its own laws in most areas. In August 2019, the Indian government revoked this special status - a move it framed as essential for integrating Kashmir more fully into India and opening the region to development and investment.

Since then, tourism had been at the heart of New Delhi’s narrative of a “new Kashmir” - safe, open, and economically vibrant. Glossy ad campaigns, expanded flight routes, and infrastructure investments were meant to lure visitors and signal a return to peace. But the recent attack in Pahalgam shattered that image, casting doubt on claims of stability and dealing a heavy blow to those who depend on tourism for their survival.

In response, the Indian government launched a sweeping crackdown. Security forces demolished the homes of those accused in the Pahalgam attack, and reports indicate that additional troops were deployed across South Kashmir. Checkpoints have multiplied, cordon-and-search operations have intensified, and numerous detentions have been reported in villages near the attack site.

India and Pakistan at odds again

After the Pahalgam attack, India blamed Pakistan-based militant groups for orchestrating the attack, terming it a “proxy terror strike designed to derail peace and tourism in the Valley.”

Pakistan denied the charge and called for an international probe.

But events soon spiralled into an escalation that magnified political and diplomatic tensions, raising the stakes both domestically and internationally.

The timing of these tensions was particularly sensitive. The attack happened when U.S. Vice President JD Vance was in India, having met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi just a day prior.

Modi, who was visiting Saudi Arabia then, cut his trip short. President Trump also issued a statement condemning the violence and calling for global unity against terrorism.

But, back home, Union Home Minister Amit Shah flew to Kashmir within hours, vowing justice and decisive action.

And while the world’s attention is fixed on the incident, deeper structural issues continue to fester like deepening water rights disputes between Kashmir and neighbouring country Pakistan.

In the wake of the attack, India revived long-standing tensions over water sharing with Pakistan, signalling a broader strategic shift. Citing national security concerns and the need to assert its rights under the Indus Waters Treaty, Indian authorities announced plans to fast-track the suspension of unutilised water flows from the eastern rivers - the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej - into Pakistan.

Signed in 1960 and brokered by the World Bank, the Indus Waters Treaty governs the distribution of water from six rivers of the Indus basin between India and Pakistan. While India controls the eastern rivers, it must allow the western rivers - including the Indus itself - to flow largely unobstructed to Pakistan. Any move to alter this balance has historically been seen as highly provocative.

Pakistan sharply condemned the move as an act of “water warfare,” with Islamabad’s National Security Committee labeling India’s action “cowardly, illegal” and warning that halting or diverting water flows would be treated as an act of war. 

In May, just weeks after the Pahalgam incident, India launched a precision missile strike targeting what it described as “terror launch pads and safe houses in Pakistan-administered Kashmir.”

The Indian Ministry of Defence released satellite imagery, claiming multiple high-value targets were destroyed in what was described as a “non-conventional but necessary” pre-emptive strike in a military operation which they named Operation Sindoor.

Days later, Pakistan launched retaliatory missile strikes and drone intrusions across the Line of Control and in central Indian states, including in Jammu and Kashmir, claiming they were aimed at Indian military installations and not civilian areas.

Pakistan’s military also confirmed the use of short-range tactical missiles, marking one of the most dangerous exchanges between the two countries in recent years.

The skies over Kashmir and Punjab saw tense moments, with air raid sirens in border towns, evacuations in border villages, and international airlines rerouting flights to avoid the airspace. Several border skirmishes also broke out, leading to casualties on both sides. The spectre of full-scale war looms.

Diplomatic Intervention and Ceasefire

With intense pressure from global powers, including the United States, China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia, both countries were urged to step back from the brink. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres issued a rare statement warning of “catastrophic consequences” if tensions escalated further.

Eventually, a back-channel ceasefire was brokered, with mediation from Gulf nations and the United Nations, and US President Trump announced it. This was soon followed by Indian and Pakistani government announcements. Both sides agreed to cease further hostilities and return to diplomatic engagement.

With war clouds scattered, Kashmir still mourns

Despite the ceasefire, Kashmir continues to mourn. The valleys, once alive with tourists' laughter, remain eerily silent. In places like Baisaran, the ponies stand tethered with no riders. The meadow paths are quiet, and the echo of gunfire from that day still lingers in people’s memories.

“The ceasefire may have stopped missiles, but who will stop the pain in our hearts?” said Sahil Ahmad, a hotel owner in Pahalgam. Similarly, the Shikara owners in Dal Lake Srinagar sit idle, watching empty waters instead of ferrying honeymooners or families. For the Kashmiri people, the war was not just between two countries but between hope and despair.

The Pahalgam incident, followed by the India-Pakistan military confrontation, has cast a long, dark shadow over Kashmir’s dream of peace and prosperity. While borders may have fallen silent, the wounds within remain raw and open.

Image by Imad Clicks.