Rice fields wither under climate pressure in Kashmir and Nigeria

"I have invested more than INR 30,000 (€296) from the day of tilling till date. Spending [that amount] without any return hurts deeply. It feels like I have invested wrongly," Ganie told FairPlanet. “We are just hoping for rain because if it does not come, we will be left with nothing.”

For generations, rice farming has remained a staple diet in India’s Kashmir region. The area’s lush paddy fields have not only supported the livelihoods of farmers but have also shaped rural identity and tradition. Here, rice farming is not just an occupation, it is a way of life. 

But rice cultivation in this region has been negatively affected by climate change primarily due to a combination of rising temperatures and erratic rainfalls which has pushed farmers into an unfamiliar crisis, leaving them without enough water to grow their crop. 

This change in rainfall pattern is not unique to Kashmir. The same problem is playing out in northcentral Nigeria’s Niger state, 7,620 kilometres (4,735 miles) away. When Adamu Mohammed began planting rice on his two-hectare field in March 2024 in his community in Mokwa, his plan was that after harvesting in four months time, he will take enough to feed his family till the next planting season, and sell the remaining – the profit he hopes to use to repair his house damaged in 2023 by heavy wind and rain.

“The plan was that if I get a good harvest, I will repair my house and return with my family. But we are still in my parents’ house [where we temporarily relocated to],” the father of six said. Mohammed said the drought experience in 2024 resulted in a very low yield of only six bags of rice against over 50 bags he gets at every harvest. “It [drought] resulted in a serious setback,” he said.

Climate-induced challenge

Climate change is significantly affecting rice production in both regions, through changes in temperature, rainfall patterns, and extreme weather events. This phenomenon is causing a reduction in crop yield and gradually pushing farmers away from their rice fields. 

Tayo Iyanda, Professor of Geography and Applied Agro Meteorology at Federal University of Technology, Minna, Niger State, explained that the changes in climate are mostly caused by human activities which include emissions from industries and vehicles. 

Put together, “all these affect the climate,” Iyanda said. “When it affects the climate, it affects changes in rainfall patterns.” 

These emissions causing the average temperature to rise is having some effect already in Kashmir. A 2019 study in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics found that Kashmir’s average temperature rose by 0.8°C between 1980 and 2016. It also reported a yearly drop in winter and spring precipitation up to 16.7 millimetres less snowfall and rainfall in key areas like Gulmarg and Srinagar. The study links these trends to growing agricultural stress, warning that continued warming and drying will further threaten Kashmir’s crop yields and water resources.

“Kashmir is four degrees Celsius warmer than what it used to be a decade ago. This rise in temperature is directly impacting plants and other vegetation. These extreme changes disturb the seed window. In most cases, the plant skips its natural vegetative phase and directly enters the reproductive phase, which shortens the growth period and ends up in low yields,” Dr. Latief Ahmad, Climatologist and Agronomist at Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir (SKUAST-K), explained to FairPlanet.

Rice typically requires a lot of water for maximum growth. Specifically, the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), research organisation focusing on food security in Africa, said that rice requires about 1200 mm to 1600 mm of rainfall evenly distributed throughout its growing period.

“Paddy is not like other crops; it needs stagnant water in the fields for a long time. Ideally, there should be at least half an inch of water standing, and if not that, then at least the soil should remain moist. Without that, the crop simply can’t survive,” Sartaj Ahmad Shah, Director of Agriculture, Kashmir, told FairPlanet in Srinagar.

Kashmir farmers say their rice fields dried up earlier than usual. Sonam Lotus, head of the Meteorological Centre in Leh, Ladakh, and former Director of the Srinagar Met Centre, said the lack of rainfall caused Kashmir to witness a shortage of water, especially in the Jhelum River, which is the main source of water for agriculture in the valley. “For farmers, it’s not just about losing crops, it's about losing the very source of their livelihood,” Lotus added.

Abdul Ahad, a 79-year-old farmer in Kashmir’s Kupwara district thought fetching water from a nearby stream and manually feeding his crops with it will save his rice fields sitting on a six-kanal plot (about 0.75 acres) from drying up.

“Until May [this year], I was still trying,” Ahad said, his voice low as he looked out over his land. “Every morning after Fajr prayers, I would go to the stream, fill the buckets, and pour water on the soil. I did this for eight days, hoping the crop would survive.”

When the rain finally came in June, it brought some relief. But for Ahad, it was too late to fully recover what was lost. “The rain helped a little, but the field had already suffered,” he said. “When the land stays dry for too long, you cannot fix it overnight.”

Experts say changes in climate variations are threatening the income and livelihoods of the world’s 150 million rice farmers who feed four billion people with rice daily. As in Kashmir, rice is a staple crop in Nigeria. Niger state, where Mohammed is based, is the largest producer of rice in the West African nation. Yet, climate change affects production in Nigeria, forcing the country to rely heavily on rice importation of over three million tonnes annually.

After spending so much money on land preparation and fertiliser, Mohammed said he “got nothing”, making it difficult for him to meet his family’s needs.

“In the end, instead of getting profits, it turned me into a debtor because I had to borrow to survive,” 45-year-old Mohammed said. “The situation becomes a family challenge because it is the proceeds from the harvest that I use to buy other foodstuff for the house. But everything was cut off.” 

Different regions, different solutions

In Kashmir, Dr. Ahmad said under the SKUAST-K’s advocacy programme -  which started in 2003 to support farmers who face crop failures due to climate fluctuations - the government is helping farmers adapt and improve their livelihoods by promoting crops pulses, maize, moong, and millets, mainly because these crops require less water compared to rice.

“We have implemented this strategy across all districts of Kashmir. So far, around 10 to 15 percent of paddy fields have been converted into these alternative crops,” Shah, Director Agriculture Kashmir, said. 

Using technologies such as CRISPR, a gene-editing tool used to enhance crops for better resilience and productivity, Dr. Ahmad explained that the SKUAST-K team has been able to develop climate resilient crops for different seasons. To maintain the local food chain, Dr. Ahmad said SKUAST-K selects and distributes the climate resilient crops to 30 farmers from each village in Kashmir and then guides them through the entire planting process.

 “In the Kharif season, we promote crops like rajmash, moong, urd, cowpea, and soybean which require less water and are better suited to current conditions. For colder months and freezing temperatures, we have options like lentils, peas, and chickpeas,” Dr. Ahmad said.

In Nigeria, climate change affects rice farmers differently. As Mohammed struggles with drought, farmers like Abubakar Yahaya battle with flooding. However, the frequent flooding which often occurs just when it’s time to harvest, forced Yahaya to switch from wet (rainy) season rice farming to dry season in 2016 where he now uses an irrigation system to maintain crop growth. 

But maintaining an irrigation system is expensive, which is a major challenge for farmers who manage to install it on their farms. Yahaya operates three farms, and each of these farms has a functional irrigation system. “I spend about 500,000 on fuel on one farm [alone] every three months,” he said. 

Meanwhile, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) projects that average temperatures in Nigeria could rise by 1.5°C to 3°C by 2050. Farmers like Mohammed believe this increase in temperature could mean more damage to their rice fields should the government not act fast.

“I hope things get better,” he said.