Zimbabwe’s power struggle pits survival against sustainability

Zimbabwe is moving to expand its coal-fired power plants and build new ones in a bid to buffer the country against ongoing power shortages following a severe drought.

Last year, the southern African nation was gripped by an intense drought driven by El Niño, a climate phenomenon that can worsen dry spells or storms - extreme weather events increasingly linked to climate change.

Water levels dropped in Lake Kariba, located in the resort town of Kariba in Mashonaland West Province near the Zambian border. The lake is home to Zimbabwe’s main hydroelectric plant, and the decline in water forced authorities to cut electricity generation and impose load-shedding schedules lasting more than 18 hours a day. Load shedding refers to the temporary suspension of power supply in certain areas to avoid a widespread blackout.

In its climate plan - known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC)- Zimbabwe has proposed refurbishing old power generation units at the Hwange Thermal Power Station next year. According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), NDCs outline each country’s commitment to reducing national emissions and adapting to climate change under the Paris Agreement. Every signatory to the agreement is required to submit a climate plan aimed at limiting warming to 1.5°C, adapting to climate impacts and ensuring adequate financial support for these efforts.

Zimbabwe’s coal-based power generation capacity will increase by 400 megawatts (MW) following the refurbishment of aging units at the Hwange Thermal Power Station. The facility is currently producing 1,074 MW. In 2018, Zimbabwe added Units 7 and 8 to the Hwange plant at a cost of USD 1.5 billion, which was financed by China. The government is also planning to construct a new 720 MW coal power plant.

According to Zimbabwe’s climate plan, emissions are expected to peak in 2026 at around 24,900 GgCO₂ eq (gigagrammes of carbon dioxide equivalent), then decline to 23,100 GgCO₂ eq by 2030 and 22,700 GgCO₂ eq by 2035. The projected reduction is attributed to solar and wind energy projects set to come online after 2026. In 2022, total national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were estimated at 83,118.72 Gg CO₂ eq. Zimbabwe has set a target to cut its emissions by 40 per cent by 2030.

The projected rise in emissions from the energy sector in 2026 - driven by the addition of new power plants - marks a significant setback and poses a threat to Zimbabwe’s emissions targets. Notably, the southern African nation was the first on the continent to submit its 2035 climate plan ahead of the United Nations’ 10 February deadline.

The new coal-fired power plant is set to be built in Hwange, located in the northwestern Matabeleland Province. The area is also home to Zimbabwe’s largest natural reserve, which shelters endangered species such as elephants. Residents are already contending with air, noise, and water pollution caused by coal mining. The Deka River, a tributary of the Zambezi that runs through Hwange, has become heavily polluted, putting livestock, wildlife and the communities who rely on it for water at risk. Experts now warn that expanding mining operations will further worsen conditions for local residents.

Dean Bhekumuzi Bhebhe, senior just transition and campaigns lead at Power Shift Africa - a Nairobi-based think tank - said Zimbabwe’s decision to lean on coal to meet short-term energy needs amid a power crisis underscores the difficult trade-offs the country faces in balancing immediate energy demands with long-term sustainability.

"While addressing the immediate power shortage is critical, investing in coal may inadvertently perpetuate environmental damage and hinder the transition to cleaner energy," he told FairPlanet. 

Tapiwa O’Brien Nhachi, an independent climate and natural resources researcher based in Mutare, Zimbabwe’s third-largest city, said the region’s energy deficit is a serious and pressing issue that must be addressed. Zimbabwe is not alone in facing drought-related challenges, he noted, with countries like Zambia and Malawi also affected.

In September 2024, Zambian authorities announced the shutdown of their section of the Kariba Hydro Power Plant due to low water levels. Nhachi noted that regional power shortages - affecting countries like Zimbabwe and Zambia as a result of drought - could potentially be eased in the short term through investment in coal.

Last year, businesses across the country - including mining companies and farms - were severely affected by the prolonged power crisis. The disruptions led to job losses and increased poverty, as companies were forced to lay off workers.

A new World Bank report shows that Zimbabwe’s economy grew by a sluggish 2 per cent - down from the 3.3 per cent projected in June 2024. Experts attribute the slowdown to several factors, including the ongoing power crisis. According to the Zimbabwe Economic Update (ZEU) released by the World Bank in December 2023, electricity shortages are estimated to cost the country up to 6.1 per cent of its GDP annually.

Slow economic growth translates into medicine shortages in public hospitals, underfunded education and delayed infrastructure development across the country.

Drought takes a toll on hydroelectricity sources 

Zimbabwe shares the Kariba Hydro Power Plant - located along the Zambezi River - with its northern neighbour, Zambia. Last year, electricity generation at the plant plummeted by over 80 per cent, producing just 185 megawatts (MW) compared to its installed capacity of 1,050 MW, due to drought. In April 2024, the government declared the drought a national disaster - the worst in 40 years - which left more than half the population food insecure.

Zimbabwe, a country of 15.1 million people with 62 per cent electricity access, relies heavily on coal and hydropower for its energy needs. Thermal power plants contribute 41.8 per cent to the national grid, while hydropower supplies 34.6 per cent. Independent power producers account for 3 per cent, and electricity imports - mainly from South Africa, Mozambique and other regional countries - make up the remaining 19.8 per cent, according to the Zimbabwe Energy Regulatory Authority (ZERA).

The Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) - a joint entity managed by Zimbabwe and Zambia that oversees the man-made Kariba reservoir - reported that water levels are gradually rising but remain lower than last year. As of 31 March 2025, the dam was 9.18 per cent full, down from 13.73 per cent at the same time in 2024. The Kariba Hydro Power Plant is currently generating 252 megawatts (MW), well below its installed capacity.

Zimbabwe and Zambia had planned to build the 2,400 MW Batoka Gorge hydroelectric power station downstream of Kariba, but experts now say the project is no longer viable due to increasingly frequent droughts. Zambia is instead focusing on expanding hydropower generation in the northern part of the country, where water resources are more reliable - an effort from which Zimbabwe is likely to benefit through electricity imports.

Zimbabwe’s just energy transition in peril

Zimbabwe is doubling down on coal to generate electricity, even as global calls intensify for a shift toward cleaner, renewable energy sources like solar and wind.

Pressure is mounting across all sectors of the economy, including businesses struggling to cope with Zimbabwe’s acute energy crisis. 

Bhebhe from Power Shift Africa said that Africa - including Zimbabwe - must address power shortages by embracing renewable energy sources like solar, which offer the dual benefits of environmental sustainability and economic opportunity.

"This transition is not only essential for tackling climate change, but also for fostering local innovation, job creation and energy security," he said.

"By prioritising African leadership and inclusive, forward-thinking energy policies, Zimbabwe can forge a path that meets both its current needs and future aspirations."

Although Africa accounts for about 17 per cent of the world’s population, it contributes just 4 per cent of global carbon emissions - around 1.45 billion tonnes from energy and industrial sources. Nhachi acknowledged the need for Zimbabwe to boost its energy reserves but emphasised that investing in coal-powered plants is not a sustainable solution.

"The truth is, these so-called short-term solutions will end up being long-term. You can’t consider the construction of a new 720 MW power plant a short-term measure," he said. "The current government needs to think beyond short-gap measures and invest in sustainable renewable energy."

Zimbabwe’s renewable energy ambitions are further hampered by a lack of implementation of some of its energy policies, high taxes and tariffs in the energy sector, a volatile currency and bureaucracy. In April last year, the government introduced a new currency known as Zimbabwe Gold (ZiG) - its sixth attempt to introduce a currency in a decade. But ZiG has not been stable since then, which forced authorities to devalue the local unit by 43 per cent in September 2024.

With the currency so unstable, investors struggle to get their money out of the country, which has discouraged further investment in the energy sector.

Image by Nerene Grobler.