First to See the Caspian Disappear – Kazakhstan’s Vanishing Shorelines

Over the past decade, the degradation of the Caspian Sea – the world’s largest landlocked waterbody – has raised significant public concern. 

While significant fluctuations in the Caspian Sea’s water level have occurred throughout history, scientists warn that the current decline is increasingly linked to global warming rather than natural cycles. Since 2020, the sea has been losing up to 30 centimetres in water level each year. It has now reached a record low of 29 metres below sea level, and experts warn that the decline is far from over.

The situation has drawn comparisons to the ecological collapse of the Aral Sea, which dried up due to the Soviet irrigation projects that diverted its feeder rivers, raising fears that Central Asia may be witnessing another large-scale environmental disaster.

‘Ecologists have long warned that without systematic study of the causes and work on preservation, the consequences could be severe,’ said Bekbolat Tulegenuly, a geologist at the International Turkic Academy. ‘We have already seen this with the Aral Sea. I’ve personally walked on its dried seabed and seen the ghost ships. It's terrifying.’ If the Caspian dries, he warned, ‘we’re talking about massive areas, comparable to entire countries.’ 

Unequal effects and different causes

While the Caspian Sea is shared by five countries – Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan – all of which are affected by its declining water levels, Kazakhstan’s shores are particularly vulnerable due to their shallow depth. The country’s northern shores contain less than one per cent of the Caspian Sea’s total water volume, making them the first to experience visible shoreline retreat.

Bekbolat told FairPlanet that the shallowing is likely driven by a combination of factors, including global warming. As rising temperatures increase evaporation rates, the seawater level could lower by up to 14 metres by 2100 under high emission scenarios. Researchers have also pointed to changing precipitation patterns in the Volga River, which reduce water inflows and increase evaporation rates in the closed basin. 

The Volga River, located in Russia, supplies around 80 per cent of waterflow into the Caspian Sea. Large-scale regulation of the river began under the Soviet 'Big Volga' hydropower project, which transformed the river into a series of large dams and reservoirs. Research on the Lower Volga suggests that the river's hydrological regime was altered by Soviet-era river regulation, resulting in changes to runoff patterns, water levels and seasonal flooding compared to natural conditions.  

In recent years, the Volga’s annual discharge has ranged between 210 and 232 cubic kilometres, compared with a historical average of around 250 cubic kilometres. 

Bekbolat warned that the Caspian decline is triggering ‘an inevitable domino effect.’ 

Despite its relatively low salinity, the sea’s retreating shoreline is exposing salt-rich seabed, increasing the risk of so-called salt storms. Bekbolat explained that if the water levels continue to fall, salt and chemical particles could become airborne, potentially leading to health risks. ‘We already see dust storms in the region. And salt particles from the Aral Sea have travelled as far as Europe,’ he said. 

Regional impacts

In Aktau, a major Caspian port city in western Kazakhstan , local residents already feel tangible ecological changes, as the retreating shoreline has affected fishing patterns. ‘Fish don’t bite like before. Their habitats have changed, and we have to search for them as they have moved deeper,’ said local fisherman Malik Yermakashev.

He added that catches have become less consistent, particularly in recent seasons. ‘In autumn, it was especially bad – they barely bit. Now it’s a bit better in spring, and in summer they come closer to shore, but overall it’s not like before. You could even see rare fish, such as the beluga sturgeon, along the downtown shoreline.’

Roman Karabalin, a regional off-road tour operator, warned that the continued decline of the Caspian could severely undermine the tourism sector: ‘We may still see occasional visitors coming for extreme or desert-based tourism, but the mass tourism driven by beach holidays will disappear,’ he said, pointing out that impacts are already beginning to show. ‘Right now, it’s only mildly affecting the region’s reputation, but the news is spreading. Some tourists are already cancelling trips, especially in summer, when the shoreline retreats, becomes silted, and develops an unpleasant smell.’

In 2025, more than 350,000 tourists visited Mangystau. While the region's diverse desert landscapes and unique scenery continue to attract tourists, the Caspian Sea remains the region’s defining asset. ‘No matter how much people are drawn to the mystic and sacred landscapes here, the sea is still our main jewel,’ Roman said.

Water scarcity and aging infrastructure

In 2025, Anatoly Ryabtsev, director of the Water Hub International Research Center noted that while Kazakhstan did not currently face critical water shortages, the most acute water shortage in the country is observed in the Mangystau region.

Water scarcity in Mangystau became critical in 2022 and has continued since, with some districts placed on scheduled drinking water supply only after residents protested over months-long water cutoffs. 

When visiting in April 2025, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev instructed the government and the state wealth fund Samruk Kazyna to implement concrete measures to address water scarcity in the region. ‘Three cities and 59 rural settlements have water supply schedules in spite of the centralised water supply. Water scarcity is 23,000 cubic metres per day,’ the President said.

At the same time, the water infrastructure of Mangystau remains heavily dependent on the Caspian Sea. The region’s thermal water plants and desalination facilities rely on seawater intake to produce drinking water.

As the sea becomes shallower, infrastructure must reach further offshore – and when water temperatures exceed operational limits, particularly in summer, intake can be reduced or even halted, Kaiyrgaly Kalmukanov, member of the Public Chamber of the Mangystau Region, told FairPlanet. 

New desalination plants, including Mangystau Atomic Energy Complex (MAEK), were built with reserve capacity, he told FairPlanet. ‘Even considering further shallowing, there will be no serious problems for at least the next ten years.’

However, former MAEK worker Nikolai Ageev is less optimistic: ‘No one expected this to happen,’ he said. ‘To fix it, you would need to completely redesign the system: deepen the channels, replace pumps, and rebuild everything. Just extending pipes won’t help. The water won’t flow upward.’

For decades, there have been no serious investments in desalination systems, Nikolai said. Much of the system still operates on an ‘if it’s not broken, don’t touch it’ approach, with equipment that is effectively worn out.

Water quality tests indicate that the Caspian Sea is in a ‘fair to marginal’ condition, a situation the ex-MAEK worker describes as unaddressed as ‘people just turn a blind eye’.

Aktau’s population is expected to reach more than 600,000 by 2050, almost double the current figure. Nikolai said that the imbalance between population growth and infrastructure capacity will eventually create pressure on both water and electricity supply. In extreme conditions, such as the heatwaves seen in previous years, water deliveries by tankers may become necessary to maintain basic supply.

For Aktau, the decline of the Caspian Sea is no longer just a distant scientific projection. The effects are visible along the retreating shoreline and evident in disrupted livelihoods, with the city already having to adapt.