A new peace process begins in Congo. Can it end years of conflict?

In late August, representatives of the government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the Alliance Fleuve Congo/March 23 (AFC/M23) rebel coalition met in Switzerland and agreed on a roadmap to end protracted conflict in the Central African country.

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The negotiations were part of a wider process involving the United States, Qatar, Switzerland, and Togo, as well as the African Union Commission, and were followed by the deployment of a ceasefire monitoring mission in eastern Congo’s South Kivu.

Since 1996, eastern DRC has been the epicentre of diverse conflicts between government forces and armed groups, driven by a complex mix of political, ethnic, regional, and economic interests, including competition over vast mineral resources.

The roots of the conflict can be traced to the 1994 Rwandan genocide, as armed groups and refugees crossed into eastern Congo, prompting Rwanda to intervene militarily, partly citing security threats from armed groups operating from Congolese territory.

However, the Congolese government and the United Nations have accused Rwanda of backing M23, a rebel movement formed by former fighters from the National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP), which was also backed by Rwanda.

'All of Congo is affected by this conflict. Our people continue to be killed, our mothers are raped in occupied zones, and we live in fear and anxiety daily,' Ramazani Muteba, a Congolese lawyer in Kindu, told FairPlanet.

About six million lives have been lost since fighting began, with widespread sexual violence against women and children reported.

'We are fed up'

For many Congolese nationals who have lived through years of conflict, a ceasefire agreement offers a measure of hope, but their expectations are limited.

'A part of me wants to believe in these current negotiations because we are fed up with the conflict. However, I am not fully optimistic because we have reached many agreements in the past, yet on the ground, people continue to flee,' Muteba said.

Previous efforts, including the 1999 Lusaka Agreement, the 2003 Sun City Agreement, the 2013 Kampala Dialogue, and the Nairobi and Luanda peace processes, have failed to restore peace to eastern Congo, where the M23 rebel group now controls significant territory.

After capturing Goma, the capital of North Kivu, and Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu, in early 2025, the group has continued to hold large areas of the two provinces where civilians remain trapped in economic hardship.

According to Emmanuel Ndonye, an expert in African governance and international relations, that history should temper optimism about the latest process.

'M23 itself is a monument to a 2009 failed peace agreement that the group claimed had not been properly implemented,' Ndonye told FairPlanet. 'That history matters so much today because the issue is not simply that the agreements are signed; it is whether they are implemented.'

The consequences of repeated failures to secure lasting peace are reflected in the scale of displacement across the country.

Data from the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) reveals that more than seven million Congolese nationals are displaced within and outside the country.

For these people, the prospect of returning home grows more distant with each day spent navigating the realities of forced displacement.

'Leaving Congo changed my life completely. I left behind my home, community, and clan,' Raphael Akonkwa, a Congolese refugee in Kampala, Uganda, told FairPlanet in a phone interview. 'I feel cautiously hopeful that the Congolese government and M23 are talking instead of fighting, but I will feel more hopeful when the fighting stops and people are safe.'

For others, however, the years of violence have eroded any belief that peace is possible.

'I don’t have any hope that maybe one day peace will come. I lost many relatives and friends, including those who were forced to fight in the war,' Evesi Muhima, another Congolese refugee in Uganda’s Kyaka II settlement, said in a phone conversation. 'I don’t think I ever want to go back.'

Despite the recent agreement, fighting has continued in parts of the DRC, with lives lost. According to Ndonye, ceasefire agreements alone are unlikely to contain the fighting.

This, he noted, is because negotiations are no longer simply about convincing rebel groups like M23 to lay down their weapons, but are increasingly about negotiating a political settlement with actors that have significant territorial and military leverage.

What the process leaves out

In June 2025, US President Donald Trump stepped up Washington’s involvement in efforts to end fighting in eastern Congo, helping broker a peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda.

The agreement sought to address wider regional tensions and Rwanda’s alleged support for the M23 movement. But because M23 was not a party to that agreement, the current separate peace process between Kinshasa and the rebel group has continued under Qatari mediation.

According to Bram Verelst, senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, both the Congo-Rwanda and the Congo-M23 peace processes have gaps that threaten their chances of success, including the failure to include Burundi in negotiations.

'Burundi is also affected by the conflict and involved in it in several ways. It deploys soldiers in eastern DRC, and there is also increasing confirmation and reporting of the involvement of Burundian armed groups in the fighting. That regional dynamic is not being addressed in the peace processes,' Verelst told FairPlanet in a virtual interview.

Another gap, Verelst noted, is that numerous local actors, including armed groups fighting alongside the Congolese government and M23 rebels, are not involved in negotiations and do not see themselves as part of any ceasefire agreement.

Externalisation risks

While powers like the US and Qatar remain important to the push for peace in the DRC, Verelst said their involvement is also shaped by broader interests in the Great Lakes region, including US efforts to expand access to the region’s critical minerals.

He warned that the growing role of external powers could create new challenges for the peace process.

'Because of the kind of externalisation of mediation, we are looking at not only an increasingly fragmented landscape, but also an increasing focus on short-term deals, rather than a comprehensive, broad-based, inclusive process,' he said.

The involvement of the US in the peace process, Ndonye noted, brings something that other mediators cannot easily provide, including sanctions, international convening power, and relationships with regional governments and international institutions.

But like Verelst, he warned that the peace process could face problems if it becomes overly dependent on external actors.

'If peace becomes something negotiated in Washington and Doha, while the affected communities simply wait for the outcome, then we have a problem with ownership. International actors can provide the leverage to open the door to peace talks, but Congolese and regional actors must ultimately walk through that door themselves,' Ndonye said.

For the millions of Congolese affected by the conflict, however, the success of the latest peace process will ultimately be measured not by agreements signed in diplomatic rooms, but by whether they can live and return home safely.

'As long as Goma, Bukavu, and other areas remain under M23 control, we will continue to wait and pray,' Muteba said.